MPEX: Mesoscale Predictability Experiment

Summary

The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) will be conducted within the U.S. intermountain region and high plains during the late spring/early summer of 2013 and will include the use of the NCAR GV, along with the new Airborne Vertical Atmospheric Profiling System (AVAPS) dropsonde system and the Microwave Temperature Profiling (MTP) system, as well as several ground-based mobile upsonde systems, for the field experiment which will take place during a 4-week time period from 15 May to 15 June 2013.

Scientific Objectives

MPEX is motivated by the basic question of whether experimental, sub-synoptic observations can extend convective-scale predictability and otherwise enhance skill in regional numerical weather prediction over a roughly 6 to 24 hour time span. The experimental plan is guided by the following two scientific hypotheses:

Hypothesis 1: Enhanced synoptic and sub-synoptic scale observations and their assimilation into convection-permitting models over the intermountain region during the early morning will significantly improve the forecast of the timing and location of convective initiation as well as convective morphology and evolution during the afternoon and evening to the lee of the mountains and over the High Plains.

Hypothesis 2: Enhanced sub-synoptic scale observations in the late afternoon, over regions where the atmosphere has been/is being convectively disturbed, will significantly improve the 6-24 hr forecast of convection evolution and perhaps initiation in downstream regions. Enhanced observations of convective storm-environmental feedbacks will correspondingly improve the synoptic-scale forecast.